Mineral Exploitation and Consumption Demand

With the new normal characteristics of economic development becoming more and more obvious, new changes have taken place in the situation of mineral resources in China.


Since 2010, the transition of China's economy from high-speed growth to medium-speed growth has lasted for nearly seven years. Economic growth in 2016 was 6.7%, which was nearly 40% lower than that in 2010. Economic growth in the first half of 2017 was 6.9%. The stability, coordination and sustainability of economic development were enhanced. Under the situation of slowing down economic growth, China's mining industry has changed from rapid upward expansion in the past 10 years to downward contraction, and the contribution of mining development to economic growth has been weakening year by year. China's mining industry began to oscillate downward since about 2011, and the overall downward trend is obvious after 2014.


Under the background of the new normal economic development and the downward adjustment of mining industry, tracking the changes of mineral resources exploitation and consumption in China and exploring the driving forces and trends behind these changes are of great significance for timely adjustment of China's mineral resources exploration strategy and promotion of global mineral resources management.


1. The total amount of mineral resources exploited has crossed the peak value and entered the period of high fluctuation.


From 1995 to 2015, China's total mining of mineral resources experienced steady growth, rapid growth and high-level fluctuations. From 1995 to 2001, the total amount of mineral resources exploitation increased slowly from 4.085 billion tons to 4.40 billion tons, with an average annual growth rate of 1.8%; from 2002 to 2011, the total amount of mineral resources exploitation increased rapidly from 4.761 billion tons to 10.618 billion tons, with an average annual growth rate of 94%; since 2012, the total amount of mineral resources exploitation has slowed down significantly, reaching a peak of 11.182 billion tons in 2014 and 10.414 billion tons in 2015, with a decrease of 60% compared with the same period last year. 。 The data for 2016 are not yet available, but some published data show that the total amount of mineral exploitation in 2016 continues the downward trend in 2015. From the composition of mineral resources, the mining amount of building materials is the highest, accounting for 47.4% of the total mineral resources, followed by fossil energy, accounting for 37.4% on average, metal ore, accounting for 12.9% on average, and industrial minerals, accounting for 2.3% on average. It should be pointed out that although the total exploitation of mineral resources reached its peak in 2014 and entered a period of high fluctuation, the exploitation of natural gas, rare earth and other minerals still maintained an increasing trend year by year. Because the proportion of these mineral resources in the total mining volume is small, the growth trend can not offset the decline trend of other minerals with larger mining volume.


First, fossil energy production peaked in 2013 and then continued to decline. From 2002 to 2011, fossil energy production increased rapidly from 1.608 billion tons to 4.173 billion tons, with an average annual growth rate of 12.6%. After 2011, the growth rate slowed down significantly, reaching a peak of 4.277 billion tons by 2013, and then decreased year by year, to 3.719 billion tons by 2016, with an average annual decline of 45%. From the perspective of fossil energy composition, coal production is the highest, accounting for 91.0% of fossil energy production on average; followed by oil, accounting for 7.0% on average; the lowest is natural gas, accounting for 2.0% on average. Coal production reached its peak in 2013, and then continued to decline, with the decline expanding year by year; oil production declined for the first time in 2016, with a decrease of 6.9% compared with the same period last year; natural gas production continued to grow, but the growth rate narrowed significantly from 2015 to 2016.


Secondly, the high level of metal ore mining will stabilize after 2012. From 2002 to 2011, the mining volume of metal ore increased rapidly from 355 million tons to 1.644 billion tons, with an average annual growth rate of 17.8%. From 2012, the growth rate slowed down significantly, to 1.946 billion tons in 2014, and declined by 6.8% in 2015. According to the composition of metal ores, the average exploitation of ferrous metals and non-ferrous metals accounted for 77.3% and 22.7% respectively. Ferrous metal production peaked in 2013 and began to decline year by year in 2014. Among them, iron ore mining reached a peak of 1.522 billion tons in 2013, and decreased by 5.5% annually from 2014 to 2016. Non-ferrous metal mining has maintained a continuous growth trend, but the growth rate has slowed down significantly after 2013. Among them, the increase rate of ten kinds of non-ferrous metals mining decreased from 14.5% in 2002-2013 to 5.9% in 2014-2016.


Thirdly, industrial mineral production has stabilized after 2011. From 2002 to 2011, the mining volume of industrial minerals increased rapidly from 115 million tons to 263 million tons, with an average annual growth rate of 11.3%. The growth rate began to slow down significantly in 2012, reaching 271 million tons in 2014 and declined by 3.9% in 2015. Industrial minerals include barite, talc, graphite and other minerals. Most of the mineral production shows the same change rule as industrial mineral production, but the potassium production keeps the trend of continuous growth.


Fourthly, the mining volume of building materials will oscillate at a high level after 2011. From 2002 to 2011, the exploitation of building materials increased rapidly from 2 683 million tons to 4 538 million tons, with an average annual growth rate of 6.0%. From 2012, there was a high shock, which declined in 2012 and 2015, and slightly increased in 2013 and 2014. Building materials include cement (ore needed for production), limestone for building materials, clay for bricks and tiles and other minerals. Most of the mineral production shows the same change law as the general trend of building materials mining. For example, cement production peaked at 2.492 billion tons in 2014, and declined slightly from 2014 to 2015.


From the mining data, a small number of large-scale minerals determine the change trend of the total amount of mineral resources exploitation. These major minerals include coal, iron, cement and so on. Coal mining accounted for 91.0% of fossil energy production on average. The average proportion of iron ore mining to metal ore mining is 75.7%. The average proportion of ore mining needed in cement production to building material mining is 38.9%.


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